Previsioni temperatura con GFS NOAA ed Arpege

Ho provato a mettere a confronto le previsioni meteo dei servizi NOAA GFS ed Arpege visti nei precedenti post per una localita' italiana confrontando i dati con dati di verita' a terra dati da stazione meteo. Per rendere piu' agevole l'analisi il download ed il pretrattamento dei dati in CSV e' stato automatizzato  

Script per NOAA GFS

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dove="/home/luca/gfs/"
rm $dove*.grib > /dev/null 2>&1
rm $dove*.csv > /dev/null 2>&1
rm /var/www/html/luca/gfs/completo.csv > /dev/null 2>&1
mv $dove*.txt ${dove}backup/ > /dev/null 2>&1

today=`date +%Y%m%d`
echo $today
# 11.8537, 46.4297
llon="11.75"
llat="46.25"
ulon="11.99"
ulat="46.49"
for i in $(seq -f "%03g" 0 120)
do
  echo $i
  wget -q -O ${dove}f${i}.grib "https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/filter_gfs_0p25.pl?file=gfs.t00z.pgrb2.0p25.f$i&lev_2_m_above_ground=on&var_TMP=on&subregion=&leftlon=${llon}&rightlon=${ulon}&toplat=${ulat}&bottomlat=${llat}&dir=%2Fgfs.$today%2F00%2Fatmos"
done
for i in $(seq -f "%03g" 123 3 384) #123 126 129
do
  echo $i
  wget -q -O ${dove}f${i}.grib "https://nomads.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/filter_gfs_0p25.pl?file=gfs.t00z.pgrb2.0p25.f$i&lev_2_m_above_ground=on&var_TMP=on&subregion=&leftlon=${llon}&rightlon=${ulon}&toplat=${ulat}&bottomlat=${llat}&dir=%2Fgfs.$today%2F00%2Fatmos"
done

for i in $(seq -f "%03g" 0 120)
do
    echo "Conversione grib${i}"
  ${dove}wgrib2 ${dove}f${i}.grib -csv ${dove}f${i}.csv
done
for i in $(seq -f "%03g" 123 3 384)
do
  echo "Conversione grib${i}"
  ${dove}wgrib2 ${dove}f${i}.grib -csv ${dove}f${i}.csv
done
for i in $(seq -f "%03g" 0 120)
do
  cat ${dove}f${i}.csv >> ${dove}${today}_completo.txt
done
for i in $(seq -f "%03g" 123 3 384)
do
  cat ${dove}f${i}.csv >> ${dove}${today}_completo.txt
done
#aggiunge l'intestazione al csv
sed '1 s/^/data1,data2,variabile,unita,lon,lat,valore\n/' ${dove}${today}_completo.txt > ${dove}${today}_completo_1.txt
cp ${dove}${today}_completo_1.txt /var/www/html/luca/gfs/completo.csv

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Script per Arpege (il servizio necessita di una API Key nel campo Token della URL ...ho modificato per non renderla utilizzabile la mia)

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lon="11.8"

lat="46.4"

 

wget -O ${dove}00_12.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcJxuxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=00H12H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 

wget -O ${dove}13_24.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=13H24H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 

wget -O ${dove}25_36.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=25H36H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 

wget -O ${dove}37_48.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcJxuSsoZxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=37H48H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 

wget -O ${dove}49_60.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcJxuSsoxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=49H60H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 

wget -O ${dove}61_72.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcJxuxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=61H72H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 

wget -O ${dove}73_84.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=73H84H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 

wget -O ${dove}85_96.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcJxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=85H96H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 

wget -O ${dove}97_102.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcJxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=97H102H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 

${dove}wgrib2 -for 102:114 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} ${dove}00_12.grib2 > ${dove}dati.csv

${dove}wgrib2 -for 97:108 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} ${dove}13_24.grib2 >> ${dove}dati.csv

${dove}wgrib2 -for 97:108 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} ${dove}25_36.grib2 >> ${dove}dati.csv

${dove}wgrib2 -for 97:108 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} ${dove}37_48.grib2 >> ${dove}dati.csv

${dove}wgrib2 -for 97:108 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} ${dove}49_60.grib2 >> ${dove}dati.csv

${dove}wgrib2 -for 97:108 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} ${dove}61_72.grib2 >> ${dove}dati.csv

${dove}wgrib2 -for 97:108 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} ${dove}73_84.grib2 >> ${dove}dati.csv

${dove}wgrib2 -for 97:108 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} ${dove}85_96.grib2 >> ${dove}dati.csv

${dove}wgrib2 -for 97:108 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} ${dove}97_102.grib2 >> ${dove}dati.csv

cut -d, -f1 --complement ${dove}dati.csv > ${dove}dati2.csv

cut -d, -f1 --complement ${dove}dati2.csv > ${dove}temp.csv

sed -i -e 's/val=//g' ${dove}temp.csv

go run ${dove}arpege.go > /var/www/html/luca/gfs/arpege.csv

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Confronto tra GFS NOAA e stazione meteo a terra

Confronto tra Arpege e stazione meteo a terra

Come si vede in valore assoluto i dati sono differenti ma e' comunque possibile creare una retta di correlazione tra i dati di previsione da terra ed i dati misurati dalla stazione meteo. Considerando che il primo dato e' un dato di previsione il coefficiente di correlazione non e' pessimo

GRIB Arpege MeteoFrance

Un'altra fonte di download di previsioni meteo specifico per l'area Europa e' il servizio Arpege con Grib files che si possono scarica da 

https://donneespubliques.meteofrance.fr/?fond=produit&id_produit=130&id_rubrique=51

Le previsioni sono orarie fino a 114 ore con una risoluzione di 0.1 gradi

dal sito non e' possibile selezionare la finestra geografica dei dati. Per effettuare una selezione sul file GRIB si puo' usare il parametro -lon ...il problema e' che questo switch non e' compatibile con lo switch -cvs per cui per fare l'estrazione si deve usare il piping

di seguito uno script che scarica in automatico i file disponibili, estra il valore temperatura per la coordinata selezionata e crea un file csv 

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#!/bin/bash
rm *.grib > /dev/null 2>&1
rm *.csv > /dev/null 2>&1

today=`date +%Y-%m-%d`
today2=`date +%Y%m%d`

lon="11.8"
lat="46.4"
 
wget -O 00_12.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcJxuSsoZp6y0leVHU__&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=00H12H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 
wget -O 13_24.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcJxuSsoZp6y0leVHU__&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=13H24H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 
wget -O 25_36.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcJxuSsoZp6y0leVHU__&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=25H36H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 
wget -O 37_48.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcJxuSsoZp6y0leVHU__&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=37H48H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 
wget -O 49_60.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcJxuSsoZp6y0leVHU__&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=49H60H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 
wget -O 61_72.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcJxuSsoZp6y0leVHU__&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=61H72H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 
wget -O 73_84.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcJxuSsoZp6y0leVHU__&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=73H84H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 
wget -O 85_96.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcJxuSsoZp6y0leVHU__&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=85H96H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 
wget -O 97_102.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcJxuSsoZp6y0leVHU__&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=97H102H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 
#wget -O 103_114.grib2 "http://dcpc-nwp.meteo.fr/services/PS_GetCache_DCPCPreviNum?token=__5yLVTdr-sGeHoPitnFc7TZ6MhBcJxuSsoZp6y0leVHU__&model=ARPEGE&grid=0.1&package=SP1&time=103H114H&referencetime=${today}T00:00:00Z&format=grib2" 
.

/wgrib2 -for 102:114 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} 00_12.grib2 > dati.csv
./wgrib2 -for 102:114 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} 13_24.grib2 >> dati.csv
./wgrib2 -for 102:114 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} 25_36.grib2 >> dati.csv
./wgrib2 -for 102:114 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} 37_48.grib2 >> dati.csv
./wgrib2 -for 102:114 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} 49_60.grib2 >> dati.csv
./wgrib2 -for 102:114 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} 61_72.grib2 >> dati.csv
./wgrib2 -for 102:114 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} 73_84.grib2 >> dati.csv
./wgrib2 -for 102:114 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} 85_96.grib2 >> dati.csv
./wgrib2 -for 102:114 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} 97_102.grib2 >> dati.csv
#./wgrib2 -for 102:114 -s -lon ${lon} ${lat} 103_114.grib2 >> dati.csv

cut -d, -f1 --complement dati.csv > dati2.csv

cut -d, -f1 --complement dati2.csv > temp.csv

sed -i -e 's/val=//g' temp.csv